Powell did no such thing. He had spent the month of March desperately catching up and then the month of April specifically appearing to overdo everything; on anything. In fact, the reopening frenzy which got started long before the economic reopening, had already reached its apex around Friday, June 5. The NASDAQ? Jobless claims may have bottomed out earlier this month, since turned upward again for two weeks in a row. The correlation between yields and gold already makes sense given gold is often defined by the opportunity costs for holding other similar kinds of safety hedges (like bonds). At least it’s still 1999 over there. In fact, gold’s price behavior over the last almost two years near perfectly matches…bonds. Since, the prior frenzied buying has been replaced by nearly two months of worried angst; enacting a sort of ceiling on the stock index. How about just correct? Like November 2010, going by the textbook, it should have already. When you put those facts into the context of Jay Powell’s alleged flood of money printing, why isn’t the dollar tanking except for its relation to the euro? Gold is skyrocketing – see! This monetary squeeze which makes the safest, most liquid instruments highly prized (and priced, thereby that’s what lowers their yields, not central bank bond buying) and pinches the value of the dollar upward – just like what happened in March 2020. In other words, they see the correlation between a lower dollar and higher realized growth, but it’s plainly obvious, proven time and again, they have no idea what it is that actually moves the dollar one way or the other. While bill equivalent yields press back into the single digits, much of the curve’s rates are once more setting record lows or are in reach of them. “MR. When, To begin with, for all that money printing showmanship where’s the inflation? While DXY is down recently, broader dollar indices, like individual currency crosses other than the euro, have barely moved. There’s the inflation! Since, the prior frenzied buying has been replaced by nearly two months of worried angst; enacting a sort of ceiling on the stock index. What’s most worrisome isn’t just this possible inflection, it’s where this prospective bottom may have already taken shape - still more than double the pre-March record for initial unemployment claims. The situation is so dire any chance for expectations demanded he take extreme steps. For while in November 2010, at the outset of QE2, policymakers expressed their distaste for being called currency warriors they fully expected to be currency warriors. If you haven’t seen the headlines, you aren’t missing anything. Whereas the former doesn’t really matter much, especially against the dollar, the latter does and when JPY is on the rise, though that makes the dollar fall in exchange with it, a rising yen signals nothing to do with dollar, money, or global inflation. Contrary to the mainstream’s assessment, gold isn’t predicting the out-of-control inflationary consequences of reckless money printing. As the economy was switched off, can it be so easily, seamlessly switched back on? WARSH. Dollar, people! On Sunday, May 17, however, Chairman Powell appeared on the CBS News program 60 Minutes and…went nuts. Everyone knew it was going to be bad. For one thing, it’s old news. Money Printer Go Brrr is an image macro series depicting Wojaks representing the federal reserve printing money to prop up the bond market in attempts to prevent an economic downturn. The 206,593 Covid-19 U.S. deaths as of 9-23-20, divided by the country's total population of 331,452,210, came to 0.00062. When Ben Bernanke’s FOMC voted to restart QE in November 2010, officials sitting around the table at that meeting worried quite a bit about it, how they’d be accused of setting a weaker dollar and using it beggaring-thy-neighbors. No, it’s the other labor market indications which continue to be alarmingly, historically terrifying. No one expected that it would show up straight away in the CPI, Powell’s flood of money, but if it was anything other than the torrid, desperate fantasy of a Fed Chairman who realizes he’s in way over his head then it, The 10-year “real” yield, for one, sits at a new record low. Gold is skyrocketing – see! His act wasn’t truly different, this recklessly talking up money printing. And that’s Jay Powell’s job, he thinks. Except, no, gold has been on its upward trajectory since early October 2018, The higher gold goes up, the more that corresponds to yields, In other words, they see the correlation between a lower dollar and higher realized growth, but it’s plainly obvious, proven time and again, they have no idea what it is that actually moves the dollar one way or the other. Such was the mania surrounding the prospects for reopening that even bonds were drawn upward into the fray; yields on the 10-year Treasury leapt above 90 bps in awe of the labor market’s apparently easy resurrection. The dollar’s crashing, they all say, with the major dollar index, DXY, down to its lowest level in years. That was the day the payroll report for the month of May had been released. The only time we’ve seen money supply growth anywhere near this level was during the inflationary years of the 1970s. Will it be a full recovery? The true “V” revival. And it’s quite predictably falling apart. There wasn’t a market the Fed wouldn’t pledge to support, no government deficit it wouldn’t want to buy up, and well more than a trillion and a half of newly created, ready-to-go bank reserves bulging from its weekly balance sheet reports for everyone to see. We did.”, Not only that, he then immediately and directly brought in the legendary printing press, how easy it was to crank the thing up to eleven and just take things Weimar, “We print it digitally. There was no surprise factor here, even as real GDP in the US crashed by a little more than a third (annual rate) during 2020’s troubled second three-month period. While stocks have traded mostly sideways outside of FAANGs, bond yields have dropped across-the-board again (having never really backed up all that much in the first place; hysteria). Quite naturally it will lead to millions of Americans heading back to work. It’s taken a few months for the more enthusiastic of the “V’s” proponents to see this. Economic theory posits that expectations are the whole thing, the entire ballgame. Reopening is not recovery, a simple but powerful lesson. redpill me on money - "/biz/ - Business & Finance" is 4chan's imageboard for the discussion of business and finance, and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Dogecoin. As we do, it’s not those prior payroll reports that anyone has on their minds, nor this week’s already-factored GDP collapse. What the dollar is saying, again like the markets for bonds and gold, is simply this: Jay Powell is a fiction writer, only a barely adequate one for engaging the financial media in his purposes. Any words you might try to use to accurately portray this situation would not have a “v” among them. While inflation breakevens have steadily improved since the crisis, they’re still closer to crisis than inflation, and they’ve moved off the bottom because oil prices have pulled back from the brink of zero and up to around $40 based on massive, likely sustained production cuts (and still the futures curve is in contango).

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